The Coin-Flip Analogy

a game you want to play

Imagine you are playing a game. In order to play, you must make a bet. For this example, let’s say you wager $100. The game is simple. A coin is flipped. If it is heads, you win 10x your bet. In this example, you would win $1,000 (your wager of $100 multiplied by 10). If it is tails, you lose your bet. In this example, you would lose $100 (your wager). I believe this is a conservative analogy for betting on Bitcoin. My prediction is speculative, approximate, and uncertain, but I estimate that a bet on Bitcoin has about a 50% change of appreciating by about 10x whereas the absolute worst case scenario where Bitcoin goes to $0 can only cost someone 1x the amount they invest in Bitcoin. How do I know? I don’t. Here is what I do know.