Asymmetric upside is not only about having a larger upside than downside potential. It matters greatly what the probability of the upside coming to fruition is in comparison to the downside. Some people believe Bitcoin’s continued growth to the value of gold is inevitable. Others believe it is extremely unlikely. I am somewhere in between and believe it is about as likely to happen as it is not to. With a goal of making an estimate, knowing that it would be foolish to believe I could be exact, I think a 50/50 chance is reasonable. That is why I use the coin flip analogy above.