so you're saying there's a chance

Asymmetric upside is not only about having a larger upside than downside potential. It matters greatly what the probability of the upside coming to fruition is in comparison to the downside. Some people believe Bitcoinโ€™s continued growth to the value of gold is inevitable. Others believe it is extremely unlikely. I am somewhere in between and believe it is about as likely to happen as it is not to. With a goal of making an estimate, knowing that it would be foolish to believe I could be exact, I think a 50/50 chance is reasonable. That is why I use the coin flip analogy above.