Conservative Assumptions

this is already crazy enough

Those who are paying attention may be wondering why I use 10x for the upside in my coin-flip analogy instead of 50x. My answer is that 10x seems like a more reasonably conservative upside in the near-term as it could take a decade or more to grow to a value like gold. Personally, I do believe that if it gets there it will be sooner than that, but again, 10x in the next few years seems reasonably conservative to me so that is how I think about it. Determining for yourself what you believe will become of Bitcoin and the time horizon over which that might occur will be the basis for determining how much you want to invest.